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Words of estimative probability
Words of estimative probability (WEP or WEPs) are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. They express the extent of their confidence in the finding. A well-chosen WEP provides a decision maker with an unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision. WEP usage is not standard across the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC). Some intelligence and policy failures appear to be related to an imprecise use of estimative words.
A well-chosen WEP gives a decision maker a clear and unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision. Ineffective WEPs are vague or misleading about the likelihood of an event. An ineffective WEP places the decision maker in the role of the analyst. The decision maker has to infer the prediction alone, thus increasing the likelihood of poor decision making or snap decision making.
==History==
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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